SECTORPURPLE

Australian Grand Prix — 2026 Round 1

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 iterations

Race Predictions

# Driver Team Outcome Distribution Win % Podium % Top 6 % Points % DNF % Avg Pos Gap to Leader
1
Red Bull Racing
 VER Red Bull Racing 33.9% 63.7% 82.0% 91.3% 6.3% 3.2 —
2
Mercedes
 RUS Mercedes 13.0% 41.1% 70.2% 88.9% 4.6% 4.8 +0.2s
3
McLaren
 NOR McLaren 9.0% 32.4% 65.3% 87.8% 2.6% 5.5 +0.3s
4
McLaren
 PIA McLaren 15.3% 38.9% 63.3% 83.5% 3.1% 5.6 +0.3s
5
Mercedes
 ANT Mercedes 7.9% 29.4% 60.4% 84.5% 5.0% 5.8 +0.3s
6
Ferrari
 LEC Ferrari 5.6% 22.9% 53.9% 82.8% 2.6% 6.5 +0.4s
7
Red Bull Racing
 HAD Red Bull Racing 4.0% 16.4% 40.3% 71.9% 4.3% 7.7 +0.5s
8
Ferrari
 HAM Ferrari 3.0% 13.9% 40.0% 73.7% 3.4% 7.7 +0.5s
9
Williams
 SAI Williams 2.6% 14.2% 33.4% 62.2% 10.3% 8.3 +0.6s
10
Aston Martin
 STR Aston Martin 1.2% 7.5% 20.7% 44.2% 14.1% 10.3 +0.8s
11
Racing Bulls
 LIN Racing Bulls <1% 3.2% 12.9% 37.3% 11.2% 11.4 +0.9s
12
Racing Bulls
 LAW Racing Bulls <1% 2.4% 11.4% 35.6% 10.5% 11.5 +0.9s
13
Haas F1 Team
 BEA Haas F1 Team <1% 1.7% 7.5% 28.1% 9.6% 12.4 +1.0s
14
Audi
 HUL Audi 2.9% 8.4% 17.4% 31.5% 11.8% 12.7 +1.1s
15
Haas F1 Team
 OCO Haas F1 Team <1% <1% 5.1% 20.5% 12.4% 13.4 +1.0s
16
Audi
 BOR Audi <1% 1.4% 5.6% 21.7% 12.4% 13.4 +1.1s
17
Alpine
 GAS Alpine <1% <1% 3.5% 15.9% 12.3% 14.1 +1.1s
18
Williams
 ALB Williams <1% <1% 3.4% 15.0% 16.4% 14.2 +1.1s
19
Aston Martin
 ALO Aston Martin <1% <1% 1.3% 8.5% 20.0% 15.5 +1.2s
20
Alpine
 COL Alpine <1% <1% <1% 5.7% 17.5% 16.2 +1.3s
21
Cadillac
 PER Cadillac <1% <1% 1.1% 5.9% 20.4% 16.5 +1.4s
22
Cadillac
 BOT Cadillac <1% <1% <1% 3.5% 20.8% 17.4 +1.5s
Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points
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