SECTORPURPLE

Japanese Grand Prix — 2026 Round 3

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 iterations

Race Predictions

# Driver Team Outcome Distribution Win % Podium % Top 6 % Points % DNF % Avg Pos Gap to Leader
1
Mercedes
 ANT Mercedes 39.7% 78.3% 93.8% 96.2% 3.6% 2.3 —
2
Mercedes
 RUS Mercedes 29.0% 71.9% 92.1% 95.8% 4.0% 2.7 +0.1s
3
Ferrari
 LEC Ferrari 9.2% 41.8% 83.6% 96.6% 2.1% 4.2 +0.3s
4
Ferrari
 HAM Ferrari 6.3% 33.7% 78.0% 95.9% 1.9% 4.7 +0.4s
5
McLaren
 NOR McLaren 4.4% 23.2% 65.5% 91.6% 2.2% 5.6 +0.5s
6
McLaren
 PIA McLaren 6.2% 24.5% 61.8% 88.8% 2.4% 5.8 +0.5s
7
Red Bull Racing
 VER Red Bull Racing 4.3% 17.1% 50.0% 84.8% 3.5% 6.6 +0.7s
8
Alpine
 GAS Alpine <1% 1.6% 13.2% 57.1% 2.8% 9.9 +1.1s
9
Red Bull Racing
 HAD Red Bull Racing <1% 1.1% 10.3% 46.1% 6.2% 10.6 +1.1s
10
Haas F1 Team
 OCO Haas F1 Team <1% <1% 8.2% 41.7% 5.7% 11.0 +1.2s
11
Racing Bulls
 LIN Racing Bulls <1% <1% 8.1% 40.3% 8.1% 11.0 +1.2s
12
Audi
 HUL Audi <1% 1.4% 9.7% 39.1% 7.1% 11.2 +1.2s
13
Haas F1 Team
 BEA Haas F1 Team <1% 2.1% 9.8% 34.9% 12.3% 11.3 +1.3s
14
Audi
 BOR Audi <1% <1% 7.8% 34.0% 7.3% 11.7 +1.2s
15
Alpine
 COL Alpine <1% <1% 4.5% 27.3% 9.7% 12.1 +1.3s
16
Racing Bulls
 LAW Racing Bulls <1% <1% 2.2% 17.5% 15.9% 13.1 +1.4s
17
Williams
 ALB Williams <1% <1% 1.0% 8.1% 16.8% 14.7 +1.6s
18
Williams
 SAI Williams <1% <1% <1% 4.0% 18.9% 15.4 +1.7s
19
Aston Martin
 ALO Aston Martin <1% <1% <1% <1% 23.0% 17.8 +2.2s
20
Aston Martin
 STR Aston Martin <1% <1% <1% <1% 21.7% 18.4 +2.3s
21
Cadillac
 PER Cadillac <1% <1% <1% <1% 20.0% 19.2 +2.7s
22
Cadillac
 BOT Cadillac <1% <1% <1% <1% 19.6% 19.3 +2.7s
Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points
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