Monaco Grand Prix — 2026 Round 6

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 iterations

Race Predictions

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	57.7%	78.5%	89.1%	91.8%	8.2%	1.9	—
2	RUS	Mercedes	27.2%	70.9%	87.8%	92.1%	7.9%	2.6	+0.2s
3	PIA	McLaren	6.1%	46.6%	84.7%	96.4%	3.4%	4.0	+0.4s
4	LEC	Ferrari	4.5%	43.4%	86.1%	97.2%	2.6%	4.1	+0.4s
5	NOR	McLaren	3.3%	35.2%	83.9%	96.6%	3.2%	4.3	+0.4s
6	HAM	Ferrari	1.1%	19.7%	79.6%	97.1%	2.5%	5.0	+0.4s
7	VER	Red Bull Racing	<1%	5.2%	59.9%	94.2%	5.0%	6.0	+0.6s
8	HAD	Red Bull Racing	<1%	<1%	23.6%	92.0%	5.3%	7.5	+1.3s
9	GAS	Alpine	<1%	<1%	4.0%	83.9%	3.1%	9.0	+1.2s
10	HUL	Audi	<1%	<1%	<1%	54.2%	7.6%	10.6	+1.2s
11	COL	Alpine	<1%	<1%	<1%	32.9%	9.1%	11.8	+1.3s
12	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	<1%	19.9%	19.7%	12.3	+1.6s
13	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	11.9%	11.2%	12.6	+1.4s
14	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	<1%	14.2%	20.2%	12.6	+1.6s
15	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	<1%	10.3%	12.7%	12.8	+1.6s
16	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	8.6%	16.9%	13.2	+1.7s
17	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	6.2%	25.9%	13.9	+1.7s
18	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	37.1%	16.3	+1.7s
19	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	34.4%	17.5	+3.0s
20	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	33.7%	17.5	+2.8s
21	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	34.6%	17.8	+2.9s
22	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	31.8%	18.4	+3.4s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	87.7%	92.0%	92.1%	92.1%	7.9%	1.1	—
2	VER	Red Bull Racing	7.4%	86.5%	94.8%	94.9%	5.1%	2.4	+0.6s
3	HAM	Ferrari	3.9%	81.3%	97.6%	97.6%	2.4%	2.8	+0.4s
4	LEC	Ferrari	<1%	34.4%	97.3%	97.4%	2.6%	3.7	+0.4s
5	RUS	Mercedes	<1%	4.8%	86.4%	92.4%	7.6%	5.1	+0.2s
6	HAD	Red Bull Racing	<1%	<1%	75.3%	94.5%	5.5%	5.7	+1.3s
7	PIA	McLaren	<1%	<1%	39.6%	97.1%	2.9%	6.6	+0.4s
8	NOR	McLaren	<1%	<1%	16.3%	96.6%	3.4%	7.3	+0.4s
9	GAS	Alpine	<1%	<1%	<1%	97.8%	1.5%	8.7	+1.2s
10	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	<1%	79.2%	6.1%	9.8	+1.6s
11	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	35.9%	3.3%	10.8	+1.7s
12	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	14.0%	4.4%	11.7	+1.7s
13	HUL	Audi	<1%	<1%	<1%	9.3%	5.2%	12.1	+1.2s
14	COL	Alpine	<1%	<1%	<1%	1.2%	5.5%	13.3	+1.3s
15	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	38.6%	14.4	+1.6s
16	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	29.4%	14.8	+1.6s
17	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	32.6%	15.6	+1.7s
18	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	35.9%	16.3	+1.4s
19	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	38.6%	16.8	+2.8s
20	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	32.4%	18.1	+2.9s
21	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	32.9%	18.1	+3.4s
22	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	28.6%	18.8	+3.0s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points