Austrian Grand Prix — 2026 Round 8

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 iterations

Race Predictions

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	44.1%	74.2%	88.3%	91.8%	7.7%	2.3	—
2	RUS	Mercedes	15.8%	51.8%	81.4%	91.2%	7.5%	3.7	+0.2s
3	HAM	Ferrari	10.6%	42.1%	80.3%	95.2%	2.9%	4.3	+0.2s
4	LEC	Ferrari	9.9%	38.4%	78.8%	95.2%	2.4%	4.5	+0.2s
5	NOR	McLaren	7.8%	34.2%	74.4%	94.4%	2.9%	4.8	+0.3s
6	VER	Red Bull Racing	5.5%	24.9%	64.4%	91.0%	4.9%	5.4	+0.3s
7	PIA	McLaren	4.7%	22.7%	63.6%	92.4%	3.0%	5.6	+0.3s
8	HAD	Red Bull Racing	<1%	4.6%	22.4%	70.9%	6.8%	8.5	+0.6s
9	GAS	Alpine	<1%	1.8%	11.4%	55.5%	4.6%	10.0	+0.7s
10	HUL	Audi	<1%	1.3%	7.8%	42.1%	9.4%	10.8	+0.8s
11	COL	Alpine	<1%	<1%	6.0%	36.8%	8.2%	11.3	+0.8s
12	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	4.7%	30.3%	12.3%	11.7	+0.9s
13	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	4.9%	29.4%	12.0%	11.9	+0.9s
14	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	3.5%	22.3%	22.7%	12.2	+0.9s
15	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	3.3%	21.6%	21.2%	12.3	+0.9s
16	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	2.4%	18.3%	17.5%	12.9	+1.0s
17	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	1.5%	12.7%	21.6%	13.6	+1.0s
18	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	7.5%	27.1%	14.3	+1.1s
19	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	30.8%	17.3	+1.5s
20	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	30.1%	17.5	+1.6s
21	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	29.2%	17.7	+1.6s
22	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	26.8%	18.6	+1.9s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	41.2%	74.1%	89.3%	92.5%	7.1%	2.4	—
2	RUS	Mercedes	17.6%	52.5%	82.1%	91.3%	7.5%	3.6	+0.2s
3	HAM	Ferrari	10.9%	42.4%	80.7%	95.6%	2.6%	4.3	+0.2s
4	LEC	Ferrari	10.9%	40.7%	79.7%	95.7%	2.3%	4.4	+0.2s
5	NOR	McLaren	7.4%	32.9%	73.5%	94.1%	2.9%	4.9	+0.3s
6	VER	Red Bull Racing	5.5%	24.5%	64.6%	90.8%	5.2%	5.4	+0.3s
7	PIA	McLaren	4.9%	21.1%	62.5%	92.4%	2.9%	5.7	+0.3s
8	HAD	Red Bull Racing	<1%	4.5%	21.9%	71.8%	6.5%	8.5	+0.6s
9	GAS	Alpine	<1%	1.8%	11.3%	55.8%	4.3%	10.0	+0.7s
10	HUL	Audi	<1%	1.5%	7.7%	40.2%	9.2%	11.0	+0.8s
11	COL	Alpine	<1%	1.1%	5.9%	34.4%	10.1%	11.4	+0.8s
12	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	5.3%	32.0%	10.9%	11.6	+0.9s
13	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	4.6%	28.8%	11.8%	11.9	+0.9s
14	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	3.7%	23.6%	19.4%	12.1	+0.9s
15	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	3.0%	23.4%	19.1%	12.2	+0.9s
16	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	2.1%	17.5%	17.7%	13.0	+1.0s
17	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	1.1%	11.3%	24.3%	13.8	+1.0s
18	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	7.4%	27.2%	14.3	+1.1s
19	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	31.0%	17.3	+1.5s
20	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	29.6%	17.6	+1.6s
21	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	29.8%	17.7	+1.6s
22	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	26.6%	18.7	+1.9s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points