Belgian Grand Prix — 2026 Round 10

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 iterations

Race Predictions

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	51.5%	83.4%	95.1%	96.7%	3.2%	2.0	—
2	RUS	Mercedes	17.0%	57.8%	89.0%	96.0%	3.8%	3.3	+0.2s
3	LEC	Ferrari	8.4%	38.9%	83.1%	97.8%	1.9%	4.3	+0.3s
4	HAM	Ferrari	7.7%	35.5%	81.3%	97.6%	1.9%	4.4	+0.4s
5	VER	Red Bull Racing	5.9%	30.9%	78.1%	97.9%	1.7%	4.7	+0.4s
6	NOR	McLaren	5.4%	28.7%	75.1%	97.3%	2.1%	4.8	+0.4s
7	PIA	McLaren	3.9%	21.6%	67.2%	97.5%	1.8%	5.3	+0.4s
8	HAD	Red Bull Racing	<1%	2.6%	21.0%	89.4%	2.1%	7.8	+0.8s
9	GAS	Alpine	<1%	<1%	2.8%	51.8%	2.7%	10.6	+1.2s
10	HUL	Audi	<1%	<1%	2.2%	38.3%	6.9%	11.4	+1.2s
11	COL	Alpine	<1%	<1%	1.6%	34.7%	5.0%	11.6	+1.3s
12	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	1.0%	28.1%	7.0%	12.0	+1.3s
13	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	1.2%	27.6%	8.5%	12.0	+1.3s
14	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	<1%	25.9%	8.4%	12.1	+1.3s
15	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	9.9%	11.1%	13.9	+1.5s
16	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	6.2%	13.9%	14.4	+1.5s
17	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	5.4%	13.6%	14.7	+1.6s
18	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	2.0%	17.2%	15.7	+1.7s
19	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	19.7%	18.3	+2.4s
20	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	18.6%	19.0	+2.6s
21	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17.6%	19.3	+2.7s
22	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	16.2%	19.6	+2.8s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	45.4%	79.1%	94.2%	96.4%	3.5%	2.2	—
2	RUS	Mercedes	15.5%	52.4%	88.4%	96.4%	3.4%	3.6	+0.2s
3	VER	Red Bull Racing	10.1%	41.9%	84.6%	98.0%	1.7%	4.1	+0.3s
4	LEC	Ferrari	8.5%	37.2%	81.3%	97.6%	2.1%	4.4	+0.3s
5	HAM	Ferrari	7.7%	33.2%	80.2%	97.8%	1.7%	4.5	+0.3s
6	NOR	McLaren	8.6%	33.2%	78.5%	97.9%	1.7%	4.6	+0.3s
7	PIA	McLaren	4.0%	20.7%	65.6%	97.2%	1.9%	5.4	+0.4s
8	HAD	Red Bull Racing	<1%	1.5%	14.5%	84.3%	2.1%	8.4	+0.8s
9	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	5.1%	63.4%	3.8%	9.8	+1.0s
10	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	3.0%	48.2%	3.5%	10.7	+1.1s
11	GAS	Alpine	<1%	<1%	1.5%	33.8%	3.4%	11.6	+1.2s
12	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	1.0%	27.4%	7.0%	11.9	+1.2s
13	COL	Alpine	<1%	<1%	<1%	23.6%	5.7%	12.3	+1.2s
14	HUL	Audi	<1%	<1%	<1%	19.3%	8.7%	12.8	+1.3s
15	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	6.8%	13.7%	14.4	+1.5s
16	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	5.1%	13.2%	14.6	+1.5s
17	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	4.3%	15.9%	15.0	+1.5s
18	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	2.3%	16.9%	15.7	+1.6s
19	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	19.1%	18.2	+2.1s
20	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	18.4%	18.9	+2.2s
21	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17.5%	19.2	+2.3s
22	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	16.2%	19.4	+2.3s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points