Hungarian Grand Prix — 2026 Round 11

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 iterations

Race Predictions

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	41.8%	74.5%	89.3%	92.4%	7.5%	2.3	—
2	RUS	Mercedes	18.7%	52.7%	82.0%	92.1%	7.3%	3.6	+0.2s
3	LEC	Ferrari	9.9%	40.6%	80.6%	96.2%	2.7%	4.3	+0.2s
4	HAM	Ferrari	9.1%	36.3%	77.4%	96.0%	2.7%	4.5	+0.2s
5	VER	Red Bull Racing	7.7%	32.4%	74.1%	93.6%	4.8%	4.7	+0.2s
6	NOR	McLaren	7.0%	30.4%	72.5%	95.4%	2.8%	4.9	+0.3s
7	PIA	McLaren	4.8%	23.1%	63.9%	94.3%	2.9%	5.5	+0.3s
8	HAD	Red Bull Racing	<1%	6.9%	32.4%	84.5%	5.2%	7.4	+0.5s
9	GAS	Alpine	<1%	<1%	6.2%	48.3%	4.9%	10.5	+0.8s
10	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	4.8%	39.7%	11.8%	10.9	+0.9s
11	HUL	Audi	<1%	<1%	4.0%	36.6%	9.7%	11.3	+0.9s
12	COL	Alpine	<1%	<1%	3.8%	34.5%	7.6%	11.4	+0.9s
13	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	3.5%	32.8%	10.6%	11.5	+0.9s
14	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	2.8%	27.2%	16.3%	11.8	+0.9s
15	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	1.2%	13.9%	16.0%	13.2	+1.1s
16	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	9.8%	23.1%	13.7	+1.1s
17	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	8.4%	20.9%	14.0	+1.1s
18	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	4.1%	30.5%	14.9	+1.2s
19	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	31.1%	17.4	+1.7s
20	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	29.7%	18.1	+1.9s
21	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	28.2%	18.3	+2.0s
22	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	28.3%	18.4	+2.0s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points

#	Driver	Team	Win %	Podium %	Top 6 %	Points %	DNF %	Avg Pos	Gap to Leader
1	ANT	Mercedes	30.0%	63.8%	85.1%	92.3%	7.2%	3.0	—
2	LEC	Ferrari	15.4%	47.1%	82.9%	96.4%	2.7%	3.9	+0.2s
3	NOR	McLaren	13.5%	41.2%	79.9%	96.2%	2.6%	4.2	+0.2s
4	RUS	Mercedes	13.7%	41.9%	73.9%	90.9%	7.5%	4.3	+0.2s
5	HAM	Ferrari	11.2%	39.8%	78.7%	96.2%	2.4%	4.4	+0.2s
6	VER	Red Bull Racing	7.4%	29.4%	69.8%	93.4%	4.8%	5.0	+0.2s
7	PIA	McLaren	7.2%	25.4%	66.1%	94.5%	3.1%	5.3	+0.3s
8	HAD	Red Bull Racing	1.3%	8.2%	36.0%	87.0%	4.9%	7.1	+0.4s
9	LIN	Racing Bulls	<1%	1.1%	7.8%	55.7%	7.2%	10.0	+0.8s
10	HUL	Audi	<1%	<1%	5.4%	43.6%	6.0%	10.8	+0.8s
11	GAS	Alpine	<1%	<1%	4.5%	40.3%	4.9%	11.1	+0.8s
12	LAW	Racing Bulls	<1%	<1%	3.4%	31.1%	13.4%	11.5	+0.9s
13	COL	Alpine	<1%	<1%	2.4%	27.4%	7.5%	12.0	+0.9s
14	BOR	Audi	<1%	<1%	2.2%	24.0%	11.5%	12.2	+0.9s
15	BEA	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	10.4%	21.3%	13.7	+1.1s
16	SAI	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	8.6%	25.5%	14.0	+1.1s
17	OCO	Haas F1 Team	<1%	<1%	<1%	7.5%	21.6%	14.2	+1.1s
18	ALB	Williams	<1%	<1%	<1%	4.0%	29.4%	15.0	+1.2s
19	PER	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	29.1%	17.3	+1.5s
20	ALO	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	31.4%	17.9	+1.6s
21	STR	Aston Martin	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	27.7%	18.1	+1.7s
22	BOT	Cadillac	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	27.7%	18.2	+1.7s

Win Podium Top 6 Points Outside points